I've mentioned Alex Gorbachev in his role as future party host, but I haven't delved into his futurist inclination. But take a look at this post:
The rumors are that Oracle Exadata v2 and Oracle Database Machine v2 are going to be announced within few weeks and my take is that it’s going to happen at the Oracle Open World. I don’t think it comes as a surprise to anyone that it will be configured with Oracle Database 11g Release 2.
Moving on to predictions and speculations…
Specifically:
I believe that Oracle Database Machine v2 will be delivered on Sun hardware.
The exact figures are not published but Oracle claims that adoption of HP Oracle Database Machine is high. If Oracle makes Database Machine available for generic use and data-centers consolidation (those are very “popular” projects now for our customers) then demand will surge immensely and Oracle will need to meet supply. Of course, Oracle could let HP pocket quite a bit of cash but why not leave it all for themselves?
Gorbachev then references Oracle's recent advertisement in which they emphatically state that they will spend more on SPARC and Solaris than Sun did. And remember point 4 from that ad:
Dramatically improve Sun's performance by tightly integrating Oracle software with Sun hardware.
Now there's one thing that makes me question whether Gorbachev's prediction will come true...or that it will come true in time for Oracle OpenWorld. As some of you know, I was recently involved in an acquisition in which our division was acquired by a competitor. This acquisition, like Oracle's proposed acquisition of Sun, required reviews by governmental bodies in both the United States and Europe. In our case, it took 5 1/2 months from the time the propsed acquisition was announced to the time that it was completed.
And during that time our conversations with our potential acquirer were extremely limited. After all, the deal could have been rejected along the way, and we couldn't have gone around knowing each other's secrets if the whole thing fell apart. In fact, we fiercely competed against our potential acquirer during that 5 1/2 month period. Of course, we're all buddies now.
Now today's Oracle and today's Sun are not direct competitors in the hardware arena today, so it would be understandable that Oracle and Sun could strike an agreement for Exadata 2.0 as part of the normal course of business. But why?
Frankly, my guess is that there will be a comprehensive product with Oracle software and Oracle (Sun) hardware...but we won't see it until 2010 or 2011.
Of course, I could be wrong, and my first words to Alex Gorbachev at the blogger meetup may very well be, "You were right, Alex."
[YES, THAT'S THE POST AS I ORIGINALLY WROTE IT, LISTING ALL THE REASONS WHY ORACLE AND SUN WOULD *NOT* RUSH INTO A COLLABORATION. TIME FOR THE UPDATE.]
After I wrote my analysis above, Mark Rittman linked to an Oracle event announcement:
Larry Ellison Live Webcast: Joint Oracle and Sun Product Announcement
Join Us for a Joint Oracle and Sun Product Announcement
Announcing the World’s First OLTP Database Machine with Sun FlashFire Technology
Click on the Register Now button to attend this exclusive live Webcast in which Oracle CEO Larry Ellison will unveil an innovative new product, the world's first OLTP database machine with Sun FlashFire technology. Don't miss this opportunity to learn firsthand how the partnership between Oracle and Sun can benefit your business now, and in the future.
Who: Larry Ellison, CEO, Oracle Corporation
When: Tuesday, September 15, 2009, 1:00 p.m. PT/4:00 p.m. ET
Register now to watch the live Webcast.
Notice that the announcement is clearly worded as a partnership between two separate companies, Oracle and Sun - or similar to the previous partnership between Oracle and HP. I'm sure that some European regulator will jump to the wrong conclusion anyway and claim that Oracle and Sun are integrating their operations in advance of formal government approval.
Perhaps Ellison will answer the one remaining question - why Sun? His answer will be of significant interest to Europeans who are reviewing the Sun acquisition.
I could venture a prediction as to whether the timing of this joint announcement could cause trouble for European approval of the Oracle-Sun merger...but frankly, my recent record of predictions is pretty shabby at the moment, so I'm not going to go out on a limb again.
