Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Worry about the government - how the government affects the economy, the #TSA edition

If we've learned nothing else from the current U.S. government shutdown - and we probably haven't - we've learned that government spending, or a lack thereof, clearly affects the economy.

First, the macro view. Trading Economics has published information on government spending vs. gross domestic product (GDP) from 1970 to 2016.


Government spending in the United States was last recorded at 37.7 percent of GDP in 2016 . Government Spending To GDP in the United States averaged 36.63 percent from 1970 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 42.90 percent in 2009 and a record low of 33.10 percent in 1973.

The chart above illustrates periods when the percentage increased sharply - for example, right after Reagan took office (evil empire and all that), Desert Shield/Desert Storm, post 9/11, and (most notably) the bailouts during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

But over the last couple of weeks, the absence of government spending shows just how much our economy depends upon it.

I'll confine myself to a single example. A couple of months ago, none of us were giving much thought to the health of employees of the Transportation Security Administration. If we did, we probably assumed that they were about as healthy as the rest of us.

Well, that's changed in the last few days, as some number of TSA workers have reportedly fallen sick. Did some foreign traveler bring a bug into the United States that rapidly spread through TSA workers at all airports? Actually, the cause of this illness is reputed to be financial. TSA workers, who have to work but are not currently being paid to do so, are looking for income in other ways:

Some employees have tried driving on the side for Uber or Lyft on top of their TSA work schedule....Additionally, some employees have been reportedly calling in sick to find other gigs where they can make cash to better take care of these bills.

Wow, TSA employees working in ridesharing. Wonder if they make their customers remove everything from their pockets before getting in the car.

But reportedly the gig economy isn't helping enough, because some TSA employees, giving up hope of getting a paycheck this week, are quitting. The prospect of no pay raises isn't exactly encouraging people to stay.

And no, this didn't start when Trump was inaugurated. The TSA has had problems keeping employees for years.

The statistics paint a clear picture: TSA Officer attrition more than doubled between 2010 and 2014. In 2010, 373 people joined the agency while 4,644 left – an all-time high for the already resource-strapped agency. Last year wasn’t much better, with barely any improvement in employees retained. TSA is now 6,000 officers below its 2011 peak, and there are no signs of the losses slowing down.

It’s no mystery why TSA cannot hold onto the employees it already has. Many Transportation Security Officers earn less than $15 an hour. They are subject either to constant forced overtime or else denied full-time schedules when they want them. Worst of all, they lack most of the basic rights granted to all other federal employees. These burdens are borne while they’re asked to work in a fast-paced, stressful environment where the cost of failure could be life or death. New hires in recent years have been limited overwhelmingly to part-time schedules, and almost all of these workers leave at the prospect of full-time work elsewhere. With all of these disadvantages, it’s no wonder TSA Officers can’t leave the agency fast enough.


And that was written in 2016, back when TSA workers WERE getting paychecks. It seems likely that this week's paycheck will be missed - and then all Christian Bale will break loose.

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